Hmm ... If we fix all parameters in the model underlying the simulations, can we back out a level carbon concentration in the atmosphere that maximizes carrying capacity?
Given atmospheric CO2 is plant food, might a given model yield an "optimal" level of CO2 that is many times larger than it is now?
Anyway. There is a place for simulations, but simulations have to be kept in their place, especially when we're talking about chaotic systems. Short term forecasting is all well and good, but beyond a short term, it's all garbage.
That's the point of the "butterfly effect". (In Lorenz 1969, it was a "seagull effect.") Lorenz's point was that we may never be able to know enough about a complex system--even were the system deterministic and we were to know the rules of the system--such that phenomena of arbitrary smallness may yet set the system off on a trajectory beyond anything we could have projected.
I had the pleasure of listening to economist Ken Arrow make a similar point. He had been a weatherman during WWII. Three day forecasts might have useful, but, beyond three days, they were garbage. We'd have to update our parameters and generate new forecasts. And, 80 years later, that remains true notwithstanding the fact that we have more data and more computational capacity.
I had to choke on several things Professor Orthodoxy said, like, "Once you learn something, you don't forget it." Excuse me? Jim brought up concrete, as an example of something the Romans were good at that was not resurrected until the 20th Century. He said, "We're not going to forget how to make a radio." Not only is he ignorant of history, he seems to be unable to think deductively (uh, without an electrical grid, who would undertake to "make" a radio?), or use his faculties to assess the reality of the here and now. Does HE know how to make a radio? How many of us do, without googling it and then ordering the required parts on Amazon (neither of which will be possible after collapse).
He's not just a brainwashed average intelligence academic, he's an Olympic grade moron.
I laughed out loud when I heard him saying this. I suspect that much or all of Christopher’s research funding was awarded based on his pre-supposition that climate change is the primary contributor of population decline (or as he’d say the big catalyst to degradation of ecological “services”).
I'm a climate change agnostic, but regardless of your views on the issue, there is more greenery worldwide, and greater agricultural production than at any time in the past 100 years. Therefore the plummeting birthrate, and lack of interest in becomming parents cannot be due to the climate.
When he brought up global warming as the most extreme impact in the natural world leading to a decrease in population, I couldn't continue listening ... Global warming dogma is the signifier of a full-on leftist brainwashed mind. Or he knows full well how absurd the CO2 discourse is, but he defends it for political reasons. Shameful.
Stephen, This fool defends global warming, not so much for “political reasons” as for “Dollars in his Pocket” He is PAID HUGE SUMS OF MONEY in Educational Grants to keep the government’s FAKE climate change narrative going. Stupid is What Stupid Does…;)
No wonder this younger generation is so screwed up. He’s a teacher? He’s never heard of the Deagel report? He thinks the “climate” theory is valid. I wonder if he’s aware of the suns roll in almost everything on our planet. Does he disregard the polarity shifts that are verifiable and currently happening? Is he only speaking to the United States? He doesn’t mention anything outside western civilization. A real eye opener Jim. I suggest he spend a few years traveling the world. He needs some first hand on the ground real life experience. I’m sure he’s a real “smart” young man. His naïveté is “charming”. Keep them coming Jim. At 75 I’m interested in all the current thinking and how we got to this point.
The fear of a declining human population is a great mystery to me. Without doubt, this bizarre mind-set originated within the highly-civilized, disconnected from reality business community. And, why? Because more people means more profit potential. Most likely, people who make these silly prophecies of doom have never visited 3rd World countries seething in poverty, disease and despair. The ever self-promoting charlatan Jordan Peterson comes to mind. He's forever claiming the world's extremely poor are far better off today because random statistics indicate they have an extra dollar or two per day to live on (and never-you-mind cash inflation).
Our species could maintain a robust genetic diversity with as few as 10 million people worldwide. Although, to maintain something like the agricultural-industrial based civilization we are used to today it would require about a billion human beings on Planet Earth.
The answers here are found by studying bio-evolution, ecology and paleoanthropology plus a trip or two to the 3rd World hellscapes like central Africa and India.
Globo/Homo/Tranny is happening primarily in Western nations where birth rates were already plummeting. Unless its being foisted at the barrel of a gun, as in certain areas of Eastern Europe, this bullshit sure isn't taking root in traditional cultures or those that haven't been thoroughly propagandized. Russians don't buy it and Africans sure as fuck don't buy it. The idea that its some innate reaction to over-population is laughable.
Another twat pushing the "new ice age/global warming/climate change" narrative. They've continually manipulated the name and definition. Its just a scheme to steal the property and power of average people.
Jim, I assume unexpectedly, invited someone to an interview with a mind like a steel trap. Meaning one that is slammed shut. He dismisses all of the challenges to the orthodoxy surrounding man-made climate change out of hand. His guest seems to be particularly poorly informed on any variables contributing to the Earth's climate other than CO2 levels in the atmosphere.
Having swallowed the Kool-Aid on climate change makes the rest of what he says nearly irrelevant. Jim was remarkably gentlemanly in how he handled the interview.
If people are able to sense subtle cues about changing environments and adjust their birthrates accordingly, why are there unending baby booms in third-world countries riddled with famine, disease and starvation and massive fertility declines in nations that have been getting richer and richer for decades?
Re: not rebuilding the electric grid after Hurricane Helene. Hiroshima was rebuilt, and is now flourishing. Nagasaki was rebuilt, and is now flourishing. Might have to hire a few Japanese workers, but we can definitely rebuild the electric grid.
You found a real average intelligence academic. Didn't fully agree with you on the Big Homo force feeding we are getting in the Western culture. And he totally pushed back on "man made climate change " doubts.
I'm only halfway in. Hope you get to the population controlling clot shots...oughta be entertaining.
Hmm ... If we fix all parameters in the model underlying the simulations, can we back out a level carbon concentration in the atmosphere that maximizes carrying capacity?
Given atmospheric CO2 is plant food, might a given model yield an "optimal" level of CO2 that is many times larger than it is now?
Anyway. There is a place for simulations, but simulations have to be kept in their place, especially when we're talking about chaotic systems. Short term forecasting is all well and good, but beyond a short term, it's all garbage.
That's the point of the "butterfly effect". (In Lorenz 1969, it was a "seagull effect.") Lorenz's point was that we may never be able to know enough about a complex system--even were the system deterministic and we were to know the rules of the system--such that phenomena of arbitrary smallness may yet set the system off on a trajectory beyond anything we could have projected.
I had the pleasure of listening to economist Ken Arrow make a similar point. He had been a weatherman during WWII. Three day forecasts might have useful, but, beyond three days, they were garbage. We'd have to update our parameters and generate new forecasts. And, 80 years later, that remains true notwithstanding the fact that we have more data and more computational capacity.
I had to choke on several things Professor Orthodoxy said, like, "Once you learn something, you don't forget it." Excuse me? Jim brought up concrete, as an example of something the Romans were good at that was not resurrected until the 20th Century. He said, "We're not going to forget how to make a radio." Not only is he ignorant of history, he seems to be unable to think deductively (uh, without an electrical grid, who would undertake to "make" a radio?), or use his faculties to assess the reality of the here and now. Does HE know how to make a radio? How many of us do, without googling it and then ordering the required parts on Amazon (neither of which will be possible after collapse).
He's not just a brainwashed average intelligence academic, he's an Olympic grade moron.
Yes. He became laughable in his patently politicized positions.
"Indisputable"
"The Scientific Community"
"Not up for debate"
"The SCIENTIFIC CONCENSUS"
Whatever nerd.
I laughed out loud when I heard him saying this. I suspect that much or all of Christopher’s research funding was awarded based on his pre-supposition that climate change is the primary contributor of population decline (or as he’d say the big catalyst to degradation of ecological “services”).
I'm a climate change agnostic, but regardless of your views on the issue, there is more greenery worldwide, and greater agricultural production than at any time in the past 100 years. Therefore the plummeting birthrate, and lack of interest in becomming parents cannot be due to the climate.
When he brought up global warming as the most extreme impact in the natural world leading to a decrease in population, I couldn't continue listening ... Global warming dogma is the signifier of a full-on leftist brainwashed mind. Or he knows full well how absurd the CO2 discourse is, but he defends it for political reasons. Shameful.
Stephen, This fool defends global warming, not so much for “political reasons” as for “Dollars in his Pocket” He is PAID HUGE SUMS OF MONEY in Educational Grants to keep the government’s FAKE climate change narrative going. Stupid is What Stupid Does…;)
No wonder this younger generation is so screwed up. He’s a teacher? He’s never heard of the Deagel report? He thinks the “climate” theory is valid. I wonder if he’s aware of the suns roll in almost everything on our planet. Does he disregard the polarity shifts that are verifiable and currently happening? Is he only speaking to the United States? He doesn’t mention anything outside western civilization. A real eye opener Jim. I suggest he spend a few years traveling the world. He needs some first hand on the ground real life experience. I’m sure he’s a real “smart” young man. His naïveté is “charming”. Keep them coming Jim. At 75 I’m interested in all the current thinking and how we got to this point.
Love your blog and podcast.
The fear of a declining human population is a great mystery to me. Without doubt, this bizarre mind-set originated within the highly-civilized, disconnected from reality business community. And, why? Because more people means more profit potential. Most likely, people who make these silly prophecies of doom have never visited 3rd World countries seething in poverty, disease and despair. The ever self-promoting charlatan Jordan Peterson comes to mind. He's forever claiming the world's extremely poor are far better off today because random statistics indicate they have an extra dollar or two per day to live on (and never-you-mind cash inflation).
Our species could maintain a robust genetic diversity with as few as 10 million people worldwide. Although, to maintain something like the agricultural-industrial based civilization we are used to today it would require about a billion human beings on Planet Earth.
The answers here are found by studying bio-evolution, ecology and paleoanthropology plus a trip or two to the 3rd World hellscapes like central Africa and India.
I read your " World made by Hand" novels. Listening to the podcast, fiction becomes reality...
Globo/Homo/Tranny is happening primarily in Western nations where birth rates were already plummeting. Unless its being foisted at the barrel of a gun, as in certain areas of Eastern Europe, this bullshit sure isn't taking root in traditional cultures or those that haven't been thoroughly propagandized. Russians don't buy it and Africans sure as fuck don't buy it. The idea that its some innate reaction to over-population is laughable.
Another twat pushing the "new ice age/global warming/climate change" narrative. They've continually manipulated the name and definition. Its just a scheme to steal the property and power of average people.
Jim, I assume unexpectedly, invited someone to an interview with a mind like a steel trap. Meaning one that is slammed shut. He dismisses all of the challenges to the orthodoxy surrounding man-made climate change out of hand. His guest seems to be particularly poorly informed on any variables contributing to the Earth's climate other than CO2 levels in the atmosphere.
Having swallowed the Kool-Aid on climate change makes the rest of what he says nearly irrelevant. Jim was remarkably gentlemanly in how he handled the interview.
Always an interesting Podcast, Jim. Thanks for hosting Christopher. This is of particular interest to me.
If people are able to sense subtle cues about changing environments and adjust their birthrates accordingly, why are there unending baby booms in third-world countries riddled with famine, disease and starvation and massive fertility declines in nations that have been getting richer and richer for decades?
Re: not rebuilding the electric grid after Hurricane Helene. Hiroshima was rebuilt, and is now flourishing. Nagasaki was rebuilt, and is now flourishing. Might have to hire a few Japanese workers, but we can definitely rebuild the electric grid.
Cuntzler is a Russian troll.
You found a real average intelligence academic. Didn't fully agree with you on the Big Homo force feeding we are getting in the Western culture. And he totally pushed back on "man made climate change " doubts.
I'm only halfway in. Hope you get to the population controlling clot shots...oughta be entertaining.